Where Will Kovalchuk Sign?

July 1st, 2010 –Adam Steevens

July 1st is nearly over, and the biggest free agent Ilya Kovalchuk has to yet sign a contract with anyone. This is probably to be expected – he’s clearly the most talented player on the market right now, and he’s got no real reason to hurry up and agree to terms with anyone. A deal could go through tomorrow, next week, or a month from now, there’s really no real way to tell, but we can start to take a look at the teams that have the cap space to sign Kovalchuk. Here’s the organizations who have a shot.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Leafs GM Brian Burke soundly denied the rumors that Toronto was close to signing Ilya Kovalchuk, but the Leafs actually have $7 million in cap space, and might actually be in a position to sign him if he dropped his price just a bit. That being said, it’s still a darkhorse team, and definitely not a Cup contender, which is what Kovie will be looking for the most.

St. Louis Blues

Another possible destination with the front office soundly denying any and all connection to Kovalchuk. The Blues have a decent amount of cap space, but they’ve got a slew of important RFA’s to resign, like Erik Johnson and David Perron. Jaroslav Halak has yet to sign, and he’s due for a significant raise. St. Louis GM Doug Armstrong spoke about the Kovalchuk rumor today in an interview:

“There’s certain points in an organization where you’d want to make that plunge…he’s not the right player for this organization at this time”

The Blues are focused on developing their talent through their prospects, so don’t expect Kovie to end up in St.Louis.

L.A Kings

The Kings seem to be the most likely destination for Kovalchuk – they’re sitting on $17 million in cap space, and Kings forward Alexander Frolov seems to be on his way out, so they’ll have an even greater need to fill up their top-six.

“All day long it’s looked like the Los Angeles Kings were the frontrunners on Kovalchuk, but over the past few hours things have slowed down a bit on the Kovalchuk to LA talk. Right now the Kings are working on trading for a defensemen after missing out on the top free agents, and now it seems their focus isn’t completely on Kovalchuk.
While there’s a number of teams in on the Kovalchuk negotiations, including the New Jersey Devils, even now it seems like the Kings are still the favorite destination for the Russian sniper. Yet the rush of rumors and whispers about the contract talks have certainly slowed, as Kovalchuk waits for the perfect deal to come along.
Word is he’s waiting on Los Angeles to make the offer he wants, although as of now their focus is on improving the defense.” {MSNBC}

I’ve been saying from the beginning that it’s really been a three-way race between Colorado, L.A and New Jersey, but L.A seems to be the front runner.

New Jersey Devils

Not much else to report on this front – the Devils are evidently still trying to resign Kovalchuk, but New Jersey picked up defenseman Anton Volchenkov with a six year, $25 million dollar contract, so you’ve got to figure they wouldn’t have a ton of money for anything else if they locked up Kovalchuk. The Devils could get Kovie to re-up, but it’s looking more and more doubtful by the day.

Colorado Avalanche

The Avs have a ridiculous amount of cap space, and they could afford that huge contract that Ilya is after, but it doesn’t look like they’re at the point where they would want to sign a player like Kovalchuk.

”
“The Avalanche organization is about winning, so certainly our expectations are that,” Sherman said on Thursday afternoon. “As we look to the future we feel very confident about the young group that we have and that we’re going to build around.”
Sherman’s “no shortcuts” strategy makes complete sense when you look at where the Avalanche came from and where the team sits today.
After a tough 2008-09 season, Colorado was assumed to be in the early stages of a “rebuilding phase.” But after adding gifted teenagers Matt Duchene and Ryan O’Reilly at the 2009 NHL Draft, and coupling them with the young talent already in Colorado’s system, the Avalanche fast-tracked the “rebuild” and surprised many pundits when the organization achieved its goal of returning to the playoffs this past season.
“We have an expectation as a franchise. We have a standard as a franchise,” said Sherman. “We certainly want to exceed the expectations that we have internally.”
With expectations met for the 2009-10 campaign, the Avalanche is now focused on the future.
Instead of trying to add a high-priced free agent or two this offseason – and possibly hampering the organization’s ability to re-sign its own players down the road – Sherman has stuck to his guns and shown faith in the young Avalanche squad. And why not? A quick examination of Colorado’s returning players shows a solid core in place that will certainly continue to grow and improve.” {NHL.com}

I wouldn’t rule out the possibility, just because of their $29 million dollar cap space, but it seems like L.A is the better destination out of the two. If someone put a gun to my head, I’d have to say that Kovie will end up in a Kings jersey. Toronto or Colorado might pull the trigger if the price is right, but it’s doubtful.